Report:
Using information from the USGS Seamless website I was able to obtain the DEM (Digital Elevation Model) of LA county. Also, I downloaded the perimeter of the fire as projected shape-files from the LA County Enterprise GIS website. By using both raster and vector elements on the same map projection (the theme map), I was able to show both the elevation and the spread of the fire. The darker the greener parts were, the higher elevation was, while the darker the red colors were the lower the elevation. The color white separated the two levels of elevation. The spread of the fire is shown as various colored perimeters in the same map. The legend below the map explains how the different colors mean different perimeters at a different chronological time for the first few days of the fire.
The Reference map on the bottom right of the picture shows LA county. The important features include the pinpoint of the fire. The information of exact spot was found by using the GeoMAC website (which also has precise information of historically recorded fires). The website GIS at UCLA: Mapshare DB also provided shape files such as the Angeles National Forest, urbanized areas, the major roads, rivers, and bodies of water.
I was only slightly correct in my hypothesis about the elevation. Other aspects must be taken into account. My overall hypothesis turned out to be wrong. Although the fire did generally stay in higher elevation, there was a general line in the fire perimeter that implies that it would have definitely spread into the valley if it hadn't been contained. Also the fire spread to the lower elevation zones in the non-urbanized areas (which is lower than the white zone and actually red). Thus, the fire department prevented it from getting too far into into the city limits. This, however, means there is natural correlation between the fire and the elevation it is not causal. Unfortunately, the main reasons the fire spread was because of human error and poor communication among department heads trying to contain the fire.
Reporter Jill Stewart confirmed "major errors by fire officials helped to create the biggest fire in Los Angeles County history," (LA Weekly). This left most of the Big Tujunga Canyon to be burnt. It turned out the marine layer had no effect; it was too many miles too far from the ocean to create fog, let alone in the hottest part of the year. Numerous staff writers from the LA Times took interviews from experts and concluded that "under these conditions, wind generally blows up into the mountains in the afternoons, and then down in the night and early morning," (LA Times).
The weather is much more complicated than previously thought, but I'm no meteorologist. Therefore I looked up the affects the wind might have had on the fire. It turns out that I didn't take into account the different types of winds in the area. Upon doing more research there are apparently more type of wind systems and phenomena that usually occur in the southern California region. According to the Journal of Applied Meteorology (1977), there are "slope wind, valley-mountain wind, sea breeze and land breeze, the general larger wind scale systems, and the sheltering and diverting effects" that I didn't take into account. In the journal, a meteorological model of southern California was actually created for this exact reason: studying the potential spread of wildfires. The model created of southern California seems to be very accurate and is very applicable to future research which explains why there are more wind variables to consider instead of just my hypothesis of the marine layer.
However, a new hypothesis can be formed by using information on vegetation and the reference map of L.A. county under the larger theme map. Since the reference map includes the Los Angeles National Forest (the large green area near the center of the map), it would be more accurate in estimating where and how the fire would spread. It's safe to assume that the only reason the fire stayed in a higher elevation was because the fire was spreading throughout the dry forest, the majority of which just so happened to be in the mountains.
My overall experience with the project has been a good one, however difficult it was in the past. It gradually got easier and the more I explored the programs like ArcMap and ArcCatalog. Learning how to use all these different ArcGIS programs as well as how to incorporate government information from free government websites in order to project visual theme maps is a good skill to learn. Since theme maps have a variety of different uses like advertising, marketing, demographic studies, and even vegetation research, it's good to know that they can be also be used in emergencies such as natural disasters. I find that I learned something valuable from this experiment because being able to know such a useful tool through a tutorial is different from being able to put it into practice.
Bibliography
Cal Fire - Incidents, <http://cdfdata.fire.ca.gov/incidents/incidents_details_info?incident_id=377>
Garrison, Jessica, Alexandra Zavis, and Joe Mozingo. "Station Fire Claims 18 Homes and Two Firefighters." Los Angeles Times. LA Times, 31 Aug. 2009. Web. 15 Mar. 2013. <http://articles.latimes.com/2009/aug/31/local/me-fire31>
GeoMAC, <http://www.geomac.gov/index.shtml>
GIS at UCLA: Mapshare DB, <http://gis.ats.ucla.edu//Mapshare/Default.cfm>
National Map Seamless Viewer, <http://seamless.usgs.gov/website/seamless/viewer.htm>
Pringle, Paul. "Inquiry Faults Forest Service on Station Fire, but Leaves Questions." Los Angeles Times. LA Times, 17 Dec. 2011. Web. 15 Mar. 2013. <http://articles.latimes.com/2011/dec/17/local/la-me-station-fire-20111217>
Ryan, Bill C., 1977: A Mathematical Model for Diagnosis and Prediction of Surface Winds in Mountainous Terrain. J. Appl. Meteor., 16, 571–584. doi: <http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1977)016<0571:AMMFDA>2.0.CO;2>
Station Fire Incident Overview <http://www.inciweb.org/incident/1856/>
Stewart, Jill, "Did Feds Cause the Station-fire Disaster - Page 1 News - Los Angeles - LA Weekly." Los Angeles News, Events, Restaurants, Music LA Weekly. LA Weekly, 07 Oct. 2009. Web. 07 March, 2013 <http://www.laweekly.com/2009-10-08/news/did-feds-cause-the-station-fire-disaster/>.
United States. CEMA (California Emergency Management Agency). 2009 Los Angeles County Wildfires After Action / Corrective Action Report Executive Summary. CEMA, Sept. 2009 Web. 20 Mar. 2013. <http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDAQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.calema.ca.gov%2FPlanningandPreparedness%2FDocuments%2F2-%2520Los%2520Angeles%2520County%2520Fires%2520Exec%2520Summ%25203_8_11%2520Edits.pdf&ei=RnRDUfKiKMjvrQHogYGACA&usg=AFQjCNFiarbmFwRbH-Ut_10glN320mfWZA>.
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